Forefront’s Market Notes:
September 9th, 2024
Stocks fell last week as soft economic data rattled investors focused on the Fed’s next move with interest rates.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.93 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 4.25 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 5.77 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, declined 2.91 percent.1,2
Economic Data Unsettles Investors
The four-day trading week got off to a rough start as weak manufacturing data reawakened recessionary fears. All three major averages were down for the first session after the Labor Day holiday. For many, it was reminiscent of August 5, when stocks tumbled as recession worries unsettled investors.3
Attention shifted to Friday’s jobs report as stocks traded narrowly. Markets initially reacted positively to news that job growth rebounded slightly and unemployment ticked down. However, selling pressure increased as the trading session progressed and investors digested the underlying data. The S&P 500 had its worst week since March 2023.4
Source: YCharts.com, September 7, 2024. Weekly performance is measured from Friday, August 30, to Friday, September 6. TR = total return for the index, which includes any dividends as well as any other cash distributions during the period. Treasury note yield is expressed in basis points.
Focus on Fed’s September Meeting
The Federal Reserve seems poised to make a tough decision regarding monetary policy in its September meeting. The jobs market and other softening economic data have quickly overshadowed concerns about inflation.
However, there’s still a case to be made for a soft landing.
Job growth in August was slower than expected, but 142,000 jobs were created–an uptick that some would argue is an overall positive despite missing expectations. The drop in the unemployment rate to 4.2 percent bolstered the soft-landing narrative.5
Market observers anticipate a 0.25 percent rate adjustment in September, but some contend that the Fed may consider a more significant move. On Friday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he was open to a larger move if necessary. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed President John Williams commented similarly during the week.6,7
Tax Tips on Identity Theft
Individuals, companies, corporations, partnerships, associations, trusts, and estates must report cash transactions of more than $10,000. These cash payments can include jewelry sales, a gift from a family member, an overseas purchase, or any other cash transaction. You also need to report cash payments received in one lump sum, in two or more related payments within 24 hours, or as part of a single transaction or two or more transactions in the previous year.
Here are a few things that may help you against identity thieves:
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) never will contact you via email or phone to request personal information. If you receive a scam email or call that claims to be from the IRS, report it to phishing@irs.gov.
People can steal your identity by stealing your wallet or purse, receiving the information they need over the phone or email, finding your personal information in the trash, or accessing information you provide to an unsecured website (only enter credit card information on websites that start with “https://”).
If you receive a letter from the IRS indicating that more than one tax return was filed in your name, your identity may have been stolen.
*This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.
Tip adapted from IRS.gov8
Footnotes and Sources
1. The Wall Street Journal, September 6, 2024
2. Investing.com, August 30, 2024
3. The Wall Street Journal, September 3, 2024
4. The Wall Street Journal, September 6, 2024
5. The Wall Street Journal, September 6, 2024
6. Marketwatch.com, September 5, 2024
7. CNBC.com, September 6, 2024
8. IRS.gov, May 8. 2024
Stock market calendar this week:
| Time (ET) | Report |
| MONDAY, SEPT. 9 | |
| 10:00 AM | Wholesale inventories |
| 3:00 PM | Consumer credit |
| TUESDAY, SEPT 10 | |
| 6:00 AM | NFIB optimism index |
| WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 11 | |
| 8:30 AM | Consumer price index |
| 8:30 AM | CPI year over year |
| 8:30 AM | Core CPI |
| 8:30 AM | Core CPI year over year |
| THURSDAY, SEPT 12 | |
| 8:30 AM | Initial jobless claims |
| 8:30 AM | Producer price index |
| 8:30 AM | Core PPI |
| 8:30 AM | PPI year over year |
| 8:30 AM | Core PPI year over year |
| 2:00 PM | Monthly U.S. federal budget |
| FRIDAY, SEPT 13 | |
| 8:30 AM | Import price index |
| 8:30 AM | Import price index minus fuel |
Most anticipated earnings for this week:
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About Amit: I am a first generation American, the son of a working-class Indian family, and I lived through my parents’ struggle to find their place in this country, to put down roots that would sustain them as well as their children in a new land. As they encouraged me to excel in school and fostered my hobbies and interests, I was keenly aware of the dynamic between them. I understood that there was a difference between where they came from individually and where we were now. They worked hard in their individual capacities, but they weren’t always on the same page about financial issues – and that can make or break a family’s future. I didn’t know it at the time, but this laid the groundwork for my passion towards financial services and helping families succeed.