When the Headlines Get Loud, Remember the Long Game

When the Headlines Get Loud, Remember the Long Game

 

The past few weeks have felt like déjà vu: economic headlines flashing words like “volatility,” “tariffs,” “uncertainty,” and “policy shift.” It’s hard not to feel a little unsettled. Whether you’re a retiree watching your nest egg or a working professional trying to stay disciplined, the mood in the markets can feel…tense.

So, let’s take a deep breath — and a step back.

Markets don’t move in a straight line. They never have. And trying to interpret every short-term move through the lens of long-term success? That’s a recipe for stress, not smart investing.

Volatility Isn’t a Bug. It’s a Feature.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has experienced 38 corrections — defined as drops of 10% or more. That’s one every ~2 years. In fact, a 10–15% decline in the market is so common it’s practically background noise.

Yet, during the same period, the S&P 500 has delivered an average annual return of roughly 10%. ¹

Think about that: despite recessions, wars, oil shocks, inflation spikes, political upheavals, pandemics — the market has always marched forward. Not because investors are irrationally optimistic but because, over time, earnings grow, innovation compounds, and human progress continues.

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” – Warren Buffett.

Trying to Time the Market? History Says Don’t.

In volatile periods like this, it’s tempting to “wait things out” — sell high, sit in cash, and jump back in when things “feel safe again.”

But here’s the problem: some of the best days in the market happen right after the worst ones.

Let’s take the 20-year period from 2003–2022. If you missed just the 10 best days, your return was cut in half.² And 7 of those 10 days? They happened within two weeks of the 10 worst days. You blink, you miss the rebound.

This isn’t just anecdotal. It’s data. And it tells us something simple: timing the market isn’t a strategy — it’s a gamble.

But What About Tariffs and Policy Uncertainty?
It’s fair to ask whether tariffs and shifting economic policies might “break” the pattern.

We’ve seen this movie before. In 1930, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act raised U.S. tariffs dramatically, leading to a trade war that worsened the Great Depression.³ But that’s not the world we live in today.

Today’s global economy is more connected, more responsive, and frankly, a lot more resilient. Yes, protectionist policies can hurt in the short term. But markets adapt. Supply chains shift. Earnings recover. Investors who stay disciplined are often rewarded.

“Markets hate uncertainty, but they love adaptation. And they’re better at it than most of us give them credit for.” — BlackRock

What Should You Do Right Now?
Whether you’re retired or just starting your investing journey, here’s what history — and logic — suggest:

• Stay invested. Time in the market > timing the market.
• Stay diversified. Don’t put all your eggs in one economic policy basket.
• Zoom out. Your plan should be built for decades, not days.
• Tune out the noise. Headlines aren’t investment strategies.

Footnotes and Sources

 

­