Forefront’s Market Notes:
April 15th, 2024
Stocks fell last week as investors sorted through conflicting inflation reports and assessed geopolitical tensions.
Inflation Spooks Markets
On Wednesday, the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report rattled markets, revealing that inflation accelerated slightly more than expected. Bond yields rose, and stocks retreated in response, as investors feared the news could influence the Fed’s rate decision. The 10-year Treasury yield had its highest intraday jump in three years.1,2,3
Markets rallied Thursday as investors were encouraged by the Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which measures inflation at the producer level. Unlike CPI, PPI rose less than expected, which sparked a tech-focused rally. Markets opened lower on Friday as investors wrestled with the conflicting inflation reports.
Fears of an escalating Middle East conflict also weighed on stocks during the week. Concerns about a potential weekend event led some investors to end the week in a risk-off position.4
Source: YCharts.com, April 13, 2024. Weekly performance is measured from Monday, April 8, to Friday, April 12.
ROC 5 = the rate of change in the index for the previous 5 trading days.
TR = total return for the index, which includes any dividends as well as any other cash distributions during the period.
Treasury note yield is expressed in basis points.
Inflated Expectations
Minutes from the March Fed meeting, published Wednesday, showed officials’ concern that inflation wasn’t slowing down quickly enough toward the Fed’s 2% target. But despite sticky inflation, they reiterated that rate cuts were still on the table for this year.
The start of Q1 earnings season reinforced inflation concerns as several leading money center banks—despite many beating expectations—forecasted lower growth for the remainder of 2024 due partly to inflation and higher-than-expected rates.
On Friday, the University of Michigan’s survey showed consumer sentiment fell last month. Some concluded that the survey confirmed what consumers have been saying for months—that inflation is still in their everyday lives.5,6
More Digital Choices For Filing
The IRS has made it easier to file your taxes. Forms now contain electronic signature options, meaning tax professionals can conduct remote transactions.
To allow your tax professional to use the electronic signature option, you must fill out and submit Form 2848, Power of Attorney and Declaration of Representative. This form constitutes a written authorization appointing tax professionals to represent taxpayers before the IRS; this includes performing certain acts on the taxpayer’s behalf. These acts may encompass providing an e-signature.
*This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.
Tip adapted from IRS.gov7
Footnotes and Sources
1. The Wall Street Journal, April 12, 2024
2. CNBC.com, April 10, 2024
3. The Wall Street Journal, April 11, 2024
4. CNBC.com, April 12, 2024
5. MarketWatch.com, April 11, 2024
6. CNBC.com, April 10, 2024
7. IRS.gov, February 13, 2023
Stock market calendar this week:
| TIME (ET) | REPORT |
| MONDAY, APRIL 15 | |
| 2:30 AM | Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks in Tokyo |
| 8:30 AM | Empire State manufacturing survey |
| 8:30 AM | U.S. retail sales |
| 8:30 AM | Retail sales minus autos |
| 8:30 AM | New York Fed President John Williams TV appearance |
| 10:00 AM | Business inventories |
| 10:00 AM | Home builder confidence index |
| 8:00 PM | San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks |
| TUESDAY, APRIL 16 | |
| 8:30 AM | Housing starts |
| 8:30 AM | Building permits |
| 9:00 AM | Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks |
| 9:15 AM | Industrial production |
| 9:15 AM | Capacity utilization |
| 1:15 PM | Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks |
| WEDNESDAY, APRIL 17 | |
| 2:00 PM | Fed Beige Book |
| 5:30 PM | Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks |
| 7:15 PM | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks |
| THURSDAY, APRIL 18 | |
| 8:30 AM | Initial jobless claims |
| 8:30 AM | Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey |
| 9:05 AM | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks |
| 9:15 AM | New York Fed President John Williams speaks |
| 10:00 AM | Existing home sales |
| 10:00 AM | U.S. leading economic indicators |
| 11:00 AM | Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks |
| 5:45 PM | Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks |
| FRIDAY, APRIL 19 | |
| 10:30 AM | Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks |
Most anticipated earnings for this week:
Did you miss our last blog?
Forefront Market Notes: April 8th
About Amit: I am a first generation American, the son of a working-class Indian family, and I lived through my parents’ struggle to find their place in this country, to put down roots that would sustain them as well as their children in a new land. As they encouraged me to excel in school and fostered my hobbies and interests, I was keenly aware of the dynamic between them. I understood that there was a difference between where they came from individually and where we were now. They worked hard in their individual capacities, but they weren’t always on the same page about financial issues – and that can make or break a family’s future. I didn’t know it at the time, but this laid the groundwork for my passion towards financial services and helping families succeed.