February 13, 2023
Forefront’s Monday Market Update
Odds and Ends
I woke up this morning ready to write a detailed Forefront’s Market Notes on bonds, and while proofreading it, my eyes started to glaze over. Not the riveting content everyone wants on a Monday morning. So, I went in a different direction.
Superbowl LVII
As a lifelong New York Giants fan, I can’t say I was too upset watching the Eagles lose yesterday. You hate to see such an incredible game have a late penalty be a significant talking point, but overall, it was an exciting game that lived up to the hype. Unfortunately, it didn’t take five minutes for financial Twitter (#fintwit) to start posting about how a Chief’s win was terrible for the stock market. The data point used to make that statement was that the market typically goes up when an NFC team wins and down when an AFC team wins. This idiotic theory started in the late 70s when a NY Times sports reporter named Leonard Koppett came up with it.
I immediately used these tweets to teach my children an important lesson: although this data point has correlation, it has absolutely no causation. Not to mention this indicator has been wrong in six out of the past seven super bowls.
Foolish Market Indicators
The Superbowl winner indicating the stock market’s direction is ridiculous, but that doesn’t stop wall street handicappers from creating other foolish market indicators.
Did you know that men’s underwear can tell a lot about the US Economy? Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan was convinced that men didn’t buy as much underwear during a recession. Have you purchased underwear lately? Better check your portfolio based on your answer.
This is sarcasm; please don’t check your portfolio because it has been four years since you bought underwear.
Leonard Lauder, the billionaire heir to the Estee Lauder fortune, coined “the lipstick indicator.” The premise is that when lipstick sales rise sharply, a recession is looming. What could be the basis for this, you ask? When people can’t afford large luxuries like a new car, lipstick is a small luxury that makes you feel better without the cost.
You know we are running out of ideas when lipstick and underwear are part of your thesis for managing money.
Music
I am not a country music fan, but Chris Stapleton singing the national anthem was terrific. I know social media is ablaze with calls for it being the best rendition ever, but that is just because people forget about Whitney Houston singing the national anthem in 1991.
Rihanna’s halftime show was also great, although there is always controversy around the halftime performance. I know it is her job, and she has done these things before, but standing on that platform in the air as the camera showed it swaying was a bit much for my anxiety.
Most Important
I love football, but the Superbowl being over can only mean one thing; baseball season has begun. Go Yanks!
Stock market calendar this week:
| MONDAY, FEB. 13 | |
| 11:00 AM | NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations |
| 11:00 AM | NY Fed 5-year inflation expectations |
| TUESDAY, FEB. 14 | |
| 6:00 AM | NFIB small-business index |
| 8:30 AM | Consumer price index |
| 8:30 AM | Core CPI |
| 8:30 AM | CPI (year-over-year) |
| 8:30 AM | Core CPI (year-over-year) |
| WEDNESDAY, FEB. 15 | |
| 8:30 AM | Retail sales |
| 8:30 AM | Retail sales excluding motor vehicles |
| 8:30 AM | Empire state manufacturing index |
| 9:15 AM | Industrial production index |
| 9:15 AM | Capacity utilization rate |
| 10:00 AM | NAHB home builders’ index |
| 10:00 AM | Business inventories |
| THURSDAY, FEB. 16 | |
| 8:30 AM | Initial jobless claims |
| 8:30 AM | Continuing jobless claims |
| 8:30 AM | Producer price index final demand |
| 8:30 AM | Building permits |
| 8:30 AM | Housing starts |
| 8:30 AM | Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey |
| 11:00 AM | Household debt (SAAR) |
| FRIDAY, FEB. 17 | |
| 8:30 AM | Import price index |
| 10:00 AM | Index of leading economic indicators |
Most anticipated earnings for this week:
About Amit: I am a first generation American, the son of a working-class Indian family, and I lived through my parents’ struggle to find their place in this country, to put down roots that would sustain them as well as their children in a new land. As they encouraged me to excel in school and fostered my hobbies and interests, I was keenly aware of the dynamic between them. I understood that there was a difference between where they came from individually and where we were now. They worked hard in their individual capacities, but they weren’t always on the same page about financial issues – and that can make or break a family’s future. I didn’t know it at the time, but this laid the groundwork for my passion towards financial services and helping families succeed.