Headlines, Bombs, and Balance Sheets: What Military Strikes Really Mean for Your Portfolio

Over the weekend, the United States launched three strikes against Iranian targets, and tensions between Israel and Iran continued to simmer just below a boil. The headlines were jarring, the imagery intense, and the Twitter hot takes… predictably chaotic.

But while the world seems to tilt on its axis every time global powers clash, history tells a quieter story when it comes to your investments.

Let’s get something out of the way early: markets do not like uncertainty, but they also have short attention spans. And geopolitical conflict, for all its human cost and media drama, rarely delivers long-term disruption to a well-structured portfolio.

 

What the Market Did This Time

 

 

 

Let’s Talk Oil and Inflation

 

Yes, military conflict in the Middle East often sends oil prices higher. That’s expected. Oil futures jumped modestly in response to this weekend’s strikes. But again, history offers some perspective.

During the Gulf War in 1990, oil prices soared; however, by the end of 1991, the S&P 500 had risen by over 26%. Similar stories played out after the 1973 oil embargo (though inflation was a bigger villain then) and following drone strikes on Saudi oil facilities in 2019.

Bottom line: Oil volatility is real, but markets are efficient at pricing in supply disruptions, and investors tend to overreact before returning to fundamentals.

 

What History Actually Teaches

 

If your investment strategy is rattled every time a bomb drops or a headline surges across your screen, you don’t have a strategy—you have a reaction.

 

Here’s a quick historical snapshot:

Event	S&P 500 1-Day	3-Week Avg	12-Month Return
9/11 Attacks	–4.9%	–11.6%	+0.40%
Gulf War Begins (1991)	–1.1%	+2.00%	+28.40%
U.S. Strike on Iran (2020)	–0.7%	+1.40%	+16.30%
Russian Invasion of Ukraine	–1.8%	–4.6%	4.70%

A little turbulence, followed by steady altitude gain. That’s the pattern.

 

Focus on What You Can Control

 

When it comes to investing, emotional responses can be costly. It’s far more valuable to focus on things within your control:

• Your asset allocation
• Your tax strategy
• Your spending and savings discipline
• Your long-term goals and time horizon

 

So, What Should You Do Right Now?

 

Probably nothing.

That’s the hard part about disciplined investing—it’s often boring. But boring is better than panicked. Better than reactive. Better than broke.

The market has survived wars, assassinations, recessions, pandemics, and debt ceiling crises. It will survive this, too.

If your financial plan is built on a foundation of headlines, don’t be surprised when it collapses during storms. Build on data. Build on discipline.

 

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